By operating in the gray zone, states preserve escalation optionality, avoid reputation-locking commitments, and retain the ability to shift posture without incurring sudden political or strategic ...

This week, the Center for Politics' "Crystal Ball" released the latest iteration of Professor Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" model, based on the past 16 presidential elections (dating to 1948).

Sixth, you have to accept that anything that happens past the end of the second quarter of an election year matters only at the margin. If the economy absolutely collapses, and a previously popular ...